We’ve been saying it for weeks now. The 2020 polls are trash. Things just don’t make sense. Joe Biden cannot be up by 10 points over Trump and running in a dead heat with Trump in Miami-Dade County, the most populous Democratic county in the state. I’ve seen polls where college-educated voters are oversampled. Democrats are oversampled. And some firms haven’t moved away from registered voter models. Zipcodes where Trump Democrats live are bypassed and suburban GOP voters are targeted more than rural ones for the obvious reason that the former group is hostile to Trump. Also, yes, there is a shy Trump vote this year. It’s projected to be larger. And urban black women are likely to fall into this category. Also, not everyone is as forthcoming with these pollsters. We have data on that too. What about young people? Youth interest in this election has dipped to levels not seen since 2000. We could see 1 million fewer young people vote in this cycle. That throws everything off as well.
And if Biden is ahead by that much, he can just hunker down in his bunker until Election Day. There’s no need for an ad blitz either. Look at where he’s doing his stump speeches folks. If you’re up by this much, there’s no need to give a speech in Detroit. Some liberal folks think conservatives are in denial mode. Wrong. Even the Biden camp admitted yesterday that they’re not up by double-digits in the polls (via Fox News):
Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon, in grassroots summit, emphasizes that their polling does NOT show a double-digit lead nationally.
“Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits”
“Those are inflated national public polling numbers” pic.twitter.com/v95za3XRGZ
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) October 16, 2020
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign manager warned against trusting inflated national polling numbers released this week, which showed Biden in a double-digit lead over incumbent candidate President Trump.
“Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits,” Jen O’Malley said Friday, according to a New York Times reporter. “Those are inflated national public polling numbers.”
Polls released this week by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist and NBC News/Wall Street Journal show Biden ahead of Trump in national polls by 11 percent.
Although Real Clear Politics, which compares several polls and combines the average has Biden in a lead ahead of Trump by 8.9 percent in national polls.
Though national polls are less important than key state polls, and Biden will need to secure a number of swing states.
Yeah, things aren’t looking too hot for Biden on the swing state front. Trafalgar, the most accurate battleground state pollster for the 2016 cycle, pretty much says as of now that Trump is headed for re-election. Trump has, among other things, the enthusiasm gap on his side by a huge margin. Since 1988, the candidate who has held that edge has won the election. I think that’s why Biden’s campaign manager admitted this; she’s popping warning flares early.
This is an electoral win for Trump: https://t.co/9Wzk2AAGiP
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 16, 2020
‘Folks, we need you to turn out’ is the war cry. They know Biden isn’t exciting. They remember 2016 and their turnout projections being off the mark. They know they need to get Democrats enthused, worried, anything to get them to the polls—and a reminder that the 2020 polling is off might be that warning shot. It could also be a lie. They could be up double-digits, according to their polling, but ensuring the Democratic base remains anxious, not wanting to fall into complacency. Who knows? Someone is going to be really, really wrong on Election Day. Of course, I’m betting big on Biden’s folks eating crow soon.
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